Tue, 22 May 2007
Has anyone seen a recent poll for Galway West? (In the Irish General Election, that is). The last poll was March 26th, which is way out-of-date : long prior to the election being called, before the Cryptosporidium Crisis, etc.
The result is, I'm in the unusual position of having to make a decision. Ordinarily I'd vote Number 1 for Niall O'Brolcháin (Green) and 2. Micheal D. Higgins (Labour). Ireland uses the unusual Single Transferable Vote system, with multi-member constituencies. Galway West is a 5-seat constituency, and Micheal D. is a long-sitting TD, who most would have expected to be automatically returned. Niall O'Brolcháin is fairly new; he's a member of the City Council and current Mayor of Galway (thats a relatively powerless post in the Irish local council scheme of things, though). Unfortunately news from the Labour camp appears that too many people assume he will be automatically returned; the word they are getting on the street is "Yes, you'll be getting my no.2 ". But in the STV system, this could mean he wouldn't be in the running. Those votes for the Greens and others will perhaps stay with the Greens and won't transfer to him.
So the choice, Vote 1. Greens, which is my natural preference, or 1. Labour, in the hope of getting both Micheal D. and Niall elected? a poll of the current situation would help.
BTW, for voting geeks, following the link and reading about STV is worth it. It makes Irish election counts the most fun election counts in the World. One of the main arguments against electronic voting in Ireland has been that it would take all the fun out of the count, which would be over too soon ...
Posted by Anonymous at Tue May 22 17:39:57 2007
And, while voting other than your preferred order may improve the overall result in principle, usually predicting this requires too much knowledge about how others will vote to be practical. I am only aware of one situation in which voting against your instincts in STV has high probability of being beneficial, namely when your first preference candidate is likely to be elected quickly.
Posted by Martin Orr at Tue May 22 20:21:07 2007
[ Fianna Fail, PD] (the current government) and one of [ Fine Gael, Labour], [Fine Gael, Labour, Green] ('the rainbow coalition(s)'). After Green, Labour my next choices would be from 3 FG candidates.
Similarly FG supporters are likely to transfer to Labour or Green. Also, the count is likely to come down to a number of candidates from Labour, Green and FG of similar numbers; if Labour (Micheal D) is below FG, he is likely to be eliminated, while Green (N O'B) will probably be elected. If he is above FG, then they are likely to transfer to him, and then both he and N O'B could be elected. The question is, does M.H. have enough first preferences to pull ahead of the FG candidates?
A poll, such as done by RnG in March, would make this clear. Such calculations are not uncommon in Irish politics under STV.
Anonymous: I'm not sure I agree. Yes, there is the problem that in this case, my preference and my vote are not properly aligned. On the other hand, it is Single transferable vote, and voting for the one candidate I prefer (N O'B) would probably succeed in getting him elected. I'm trying to influence the success of secondary candidates, and ones not even in my first party of choice.
I'm not sure what voting system would help with that. Dondorcet, possibly, but in multi-member constituencies, maybe? and how would that work with polls?
Because I consider polls an important part of democracy, especially local democracy. It helps the candidates balance what they promise very closely with what voters want. Perhaps at a higher level, Parliament or the European Parliament, such clientelism is a bad idea, but at the council level, where politics is about roads, waste and planning rather than Government and law, such concrete measures help, and I would rather the voting system gives good feedback.
Posted by Alastair McKinstry at Tue May 22 21:01:52 2007